Four years from now, will the trucking industry still be the same industry as today?

You in 2030:

Hello.

If you are reading this letter, it means we have gone through a sufficiently intense five-year cycle. Writing this letter today is not for expressing emotions, but for conducting a constrained forward-looking exercise: we hope to capture, amidst the information noise, those variables that will truly reshape the industry's structure.

In recent years, the most obvious feature of the truck industry has been that 'the old order is still running, while the new order has already burst in.' On one hand, we are still discussing oil prices, freight rates, vehicle loans, and attendance, while on the other hand, we are being simultaneously pulled by electrification, intelligence, platformization, and globalization.

By 2030, these four forces will not exist in parallel but will intertwine into a new main channel.

Therefore, this letter only answers six questions: whether the penetration rate of new energy can exceed 50%; what the proportion of driverless trucks will be; how much global share China trucks can obtain; whether diesel vehicles will become a niche choice; whether individual drivers will still have a survival space; and what we should prepare today for 2030.

First, look at the underlying logic: 2030 is not about 'gradual upgrades,' but 'systemic restructuring.'

Many people interpret industry changes as 'the power source shifting from oil to electricity' or 'the driving method shifting from human to machine.' But the real change is not in a single technology, but in the cost structure of the transportation system.

Whoever can simultaneously lead in full lifecycle costs, vehicle utilization, energy supply efficiency, and risk controllability will gain the next round of scale advantage.

This means that the competitive unit in 2030 will no longer be just 'a specific car,' but the combined capability of 'car, energy, road, algorithms, and services.'

The boundaries between vehicle manufacturers, energy companies, autonomous driving companies, and transport capacity platforms will continue to blur, and the previous logic of 'making a good car is enough to win' will continue to fail.

Can the penetration rate of new energy exceed 50%?

Conclusion: It depends on the scenario. Overall, commercial vehicles 'have a chance to exceed half,' while heavy trucks in their main battlefield are 'highly likely to approach but with structural differentiation.'

If we calculate using 'total truck sales,' it is not a radical assumption for the new energy penetration rate to reach over 50% by 2030.

Especially in high-frequency, predictable, and easily energizable scenarios such as light trucks, urban distribution, short-haul, ports, and parks, electrification has shifted from being policy-driven to being economically driven.

What truly determines whether it can exceed half are not technical feasibility, but three things: first, whether the energy replenishment network can move from being 'available at points' to 'network-like and convenient'; second, whether electricity prices and freight rates allow drivers and fleets to make long-term profits; third, whether the second-hand vehicle residual value system can remain stable.

For heavy trucks, by 2030, it is more likely to see a 'tripartite division': pure electric heavy trucks continue to expand in coal, steel plants, ports, and medium-short haul lines; gas heavy trucks maintain resilience in certain regions and price cycles; efficient diesel retains market share in ultra-long-distance, low-temperature, and high-altitude extreme conditions.

In other words, new energy will become mainstream, but it will not dominate a single path.

If you look back at today from 2030, the easiest thing to underestimate is: penetration rate is not linear. It usually jumps suddenly after the simultaneous maturity of infrastructure, financial tools, and operational models.

What we are seeing now as 'local outbreaks' is very likely just the night before a total explosion.

How much can autonomous trucks account for?

Conclusion: By 2030, 'commercial share will be limited but strategic positioning extremely high.' The focus is not on 'replacing all drivers,' but on 'first capturing the standardizable mileage.'

In the truck scenario, autonomous driving will first be implemented not in the most complex road conditions, but in closed/semi-closed, fixed-route, time-sensitive, and operationally schedulable segments.

By 2030, the proportion of autonomous trucks in the total fleet is most likely still in the single digits to low double digits, but in specific corridors and for specific types of cargo, penetration will be very deep.

Do not be misled by 'low industry-wide share.' As long as it can form a stable commercial loop on high-frequency routes, it is sufficient to reshape pricing benchmarks and service standards.

Because the true benefit of automation is not just 'saving a driver’s salary,' but improving vehicle availability, standardizing driving behavior, making accident probability predictable, and enhancing scheduling flexibility.

In other words, by 2030, autonomous driving will be more like 'local high-voltage electricity,' not 'powering the entire network.' Any route illuminated by it will force traditional capacity to redefine efficiency.

Mixed human-machine fleets will be the main form during the transition period: human drivers handle complex road sections and abnormal conditions, while autonomous systems take on highly repetitive, scheduleable long-duration tasks.

How much global market share can Chinese trucks capture?

Conclusion: By 2030, there is an opportunity to improve on both "sales share and technology export share," raising global market share to a higher level.

The globalization of Chinese trucks has relied on cost-effectiveness in the past, but in the future it will depend on "comprehensive delivery capability": product adaptability, local services, financial solutions, spare parts assurance, and digital operation and maintenance capabilities.

Selling a single truck is not difficult; making the system work is the real challenge.

By 2030, the global market share of Chinese brands is very likely to continue rising, with key growth coming from three types of regions: emerging markets with rapid infrastructure construction, niche scenarios in mature markets that are more sensitive to total lifecycle costs, and window markets undergoing energy transitions.

More importantly, the export model will change: from "exporting complete vehicles" to "exporting solutions." Future competition will not be about who sells ten thousand more vehicles, but about who can package vehicles, energy, refueling, finance, and fleet management platforms into a replicable operational system.

Whoever completes this transition first will not only achieve sales but also gain the right to set rules.

If "global market share" is only understood as the sales proportion, the perspective is still too narrow. The real thing to watch in 2030 is the standard influence of Chinese companies in power batteries, three-electric systems, intelligent driving algorithms, and remote operation and maintenance platforms.

Market share is the result; system capability is the reason.

Will diesel vehicles become a 'niche choice'?

Conclusion: They will gradually become marginalized, but will not disappear before 2030.

The position of diesel vehicles in the truck industry will not collapse as quickly as it does in passenger cars, but their status as the 'absolute mainstream' will continue to be eroded.

The reason is straightforward: in an increasing number of organized transportation scenarios, electrification and other alternative routes can offer better total costs and stronger policy adaptability.

However, diesel will not exit the market suddenly. As long as there are long-distance routes, low-density refueling networks, and high-intensity complex operating conditions, the reliability and convenience of diesel refueling still have practical value.

What is more likely to be seen around 2030 is 'high-end and specialized efficient diesel,' rather than a 'complete withdrawal of diesel.'

Therefore, 'niche' does not mean 'useless'; it means shifting from a 'generally default option' to a 'specific task option.'

For OEMs, this requires: diesel product lines to shift from a scale-oriented mindset to a profit- and scenario-oriented mindset; for users, it requires: vehicle purchasing decisions to shift from 'buying a power type' to 'buying a task match.'

How much survival space is left for individual drivers?

Conclusion: There is still space, but the threshold is higher, and going it alone will become more difficult.

This is the most realistic and also the harshest issue. Before 2030, individual drivers will not disappear, but "low-organization individuals" will be significantly squeezed. There are three reasons:

First, after the deepening of transportation platformization, bargaining power tilts toward organized transportation that can provide stable service, standard compliance, and transparent data.

Second, the asset management of new energy and intelligent vehicles is more complex, and the tolerance for error for single-vehicle operators is reduced in energy replenishment strategies, maintenance systems, and financial leverage.

Third, requirements for compliance, insurance, and safety management continue to increase, making crude operations difficult to survive long-term.

But this does not mean that individual drivers have no future. Those who truly have a chance to survive and thrive are "lightly organized individuals": by forming fleet alliances, regional cooperatives, and using digital platform tools, they can transform themselves from "isolated individuals" to "collaborative nodes."

In the future, the competition will not be about who can stay up late longer, but who can manage operations better.

The driver capability model in 2030 will change: drivers will need to not only know how to drive but also how to manage accounts, use systems, manage risks, and maintain customer relationships. Driving skills will still be important, but they will no longer be the sole moat.

Action checklist before 2030: If you don't prepare now, you'll only be passive later.  

If the above reasoning generally holds, then what should be done today is not debating "which route is absolutely correct," but building a reserve of "transferable capabilities."  

For enterprises: First, restructure the product matrix according to scenarios; don’t use a single product for all markets. Second, prioritize post-market capabilities; whoever controls operational data controls repeat purchases. Third, treat internationalization as a long-term project and localize it; don’t just focus on export volume.  

For platforms and fleets: First, quickly build a digital foundation for energy management and route operations. Second, plan ahead for human-machine collaborative processes to prepare for localized commercial use of autonomous driving. Third, turn safety, compliance, and insurance management into a cost advantage rather than a passive burden.  

For individual drivers: First, try to connect with stable cargo sources and collaborative organizations; don’t operate naked capacity. Second, learn to operate new energy vehicles and basic data tools. Third, prioritize cash flow security over "making two extra trips."  

Those who survive in the future won’t necessarily be the most hardworking, but the ones best at risk avoidance.

A Letter to You in 2030: Please Verify These Three Things

By 2030, please look back and see whether these three things have come true. First, has the industry shifted from a 'car-selling logic' to an 'operations logic'? Second, has competition shifted from a 'single power struggle' to a 'system efficiency struggle'? Third, have individual drivers completed the transformation from being 'physically driven' to being 'business-driven'?

If all three things have happened, then today's judgment has not deviated from the main course. Even if the specific numbers are slightly off, the direction is very likely correct.

The final conclusion must be stated more directly: the truck industry in 2030 will definitely not be the same as it is today.

The difference is not just whether there is an engine or an electric motor under the hood, or whether there is someone in the cabin; it is that the division of labor across the entire value chain, the way profits are made, and the way risks are distributed will all be rewritten.

Therefore, every learning session, every trial and error, every organizational upgrade, and every patient investment in new technology we undertake now is essentially not for 'selling a few more vehicles this year' but for 'whether we will still have the right to sit at the table then.'

May you in 2030, when looking back at today, be glad that we did not start preparing at the very last moment.